Outlook for 2014 Indonesian parliamentary elections
31 March 2014
excerpts from CNA interview
…… the only party that shows a solid prospect is the PDIP. Not my favorite party, but it seems to have a large following. Part of the reason may be that people are stimulated by the idea that the PADIP might nominate a certain Mr Jokowi for President, who is the only candidate sho could excite emotional support, thus making it possible to win without too much money. The other candidates have a surplus of money, but Jokowi can win just by popularity.
…. the most crucial issue for the country is climate change, global warming which in Indonesia is primarily caused by deforestation and forest degradation, which causes violence and is spurred by corruption and abuse of power. Unfortunately this is not being discussed in the campaign. The campaign is mainly a PR contest like an Indonesian Idol contest. But even in that area Jokowi excels, and in the issues area Jokowi is the only person who has done anything real, being Governor of Jakarta as well as having a degree in forestry.
….. I am not one to judge the polls but I talk to a lot of people and I would say that qualitatively has a large following even among neutrals, whereas the other candidates, are mainly supported buy their campaign teams and parties. In the case of Mr Bakrie, the Golkar Party shows signs of breaking away once it is proven that he does not have the electoral base he requires.
…. Golkar have squandered their lead by continued cases of corruption, manipulation, the mud flow and stock manipulation scandal such as the case of Bank Century false accusations. So many scandals hound Golkar while the PDIP has been lucky not to be in driver’s seat of government. So whatever corruption they are involved in is petty compared to the cases in Golkar which is led by the very top of the party. Prabowo’s Gerindra party is using Suharto corruption money although many are not aware of it.
…. Islam-oriented parties have never been strong in elections even in the nineteen fifties days of Masyumi and Nahdlatul Ulama. The PKS started strong in the beginning of the last decade, but are weakened by involvement in corruption and moral scandals. The good practitioners of Islam are not in the political parties.